Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
